The projections of energy and ThG emissions were made using the POLES-JRC model. POLES-JRC69 is a global sector simulation model for the development of long-term energy supply and supply pathways with global coverage. Projections are based on exogenous economic growth, population projections and energy resources for each region, with prices balancing supply and demand and international trade for each type of energy. POLES-JRC describes energy and emissions balance sheets for 54 countries and 12 regions; It identifies 14 fuel supply sectors and 15 energy demand sectors and >40 energy technologies with endogenous technical progress. Energy-related ThG emissions are directly deducted from energy balances; Emissions from the industrial sector are calculated on the basis of the limit reduction curves derived from the Environmental Protection Agency70; Emissions for agriculture and land-use emissions are determined on the basis of GLOBIOM 71.72 data and are sensitive to carbon prices. The scenarios presented here were developed using a similar method to that described in previous work27, with similar sources for macroeconomic development assumptions and the same policies taken into account for the ref, NDC and 2oC scenarios. The full data on greenhouse gas emissions by region and by scenario are presented in the additional results. The REF only considers the current energy and climate policy, which has been announced until 2020. The NDC scenario assumes the achievement of the objectives set out in the NDC documents for 2025-2030. After 2030, we expect sustained decarbonization efforts, so that globally (not regionally), the rate of reduction in the economy`s emission intensity in 2030-2050 is the same as that from 2020 to 2030.

It is important that the NDC scenario was developed by scanning all NPNs submitted to the UNFCCC and that the policy details on renewable energy, biofuels, electric vehicles, etc., were explicitly taken into account. The 2oC takes the NDC scenario as the starting point and lower limit and takes into account an overall carbon budget of 1100 GtCO2 for 2011-2100.